11/19/2008

A Final Thought on GM (Hopefully)

What really strikes me is how quickly the press uses correct but incomplete information to build stereotypical narratives. Republicans/conservatives want to be "tough." Democrats want to be "helpful." The use of emotive language in headlines anchors the reader to a perspective (first impressions matter, right?) that fits assumptions and preconceived beliefs. In other words, the press perpetuates mindless debate.

Clearly I don't know what goes on behind closed doors in Washington, New York and Detroit but near as I can tell our Congress is trying to structure a vulture investment but it isn't a vulture investor. Successful vulture investing requires either one, but preferably all, of three things:
  1. The investee has some wildly unrecognized potential.
  2. The investor has some unique managerial ability.
  3. The price is so low even Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man could turn a profit.
Congress is undoubtedly powerful but it isn't organized to allocate finite resources and make profitable risk/reward decisions. It can lavish huge amounts of cheap capital on the big 2.5 and use the tax code to create the illusion of consumer affordability. Absent the pain of forced restructuring by markets how will the big 2.5 ever get to a sustainable, albeit smaller, size? This isn't an argument for letting Detroit collapse, but there must be an alternative between raging free marketism and central planning cognizant of the particular role of domestic automotive manufacturing.

Now I'm done. On to the next topic...

No comments: